Marginr Research

Marginr Research Working Paper

Discounted Margin Flow

Developing a new transparent model of margin health for dental practices, with a retrospective application to a three-site group

Paul-Matthieu Castro
Marginr Research

Abstract

Three methods commonly price an independent dental practice: a percentage of collections, seller's discretionary earnings, and a multiple of adjusted EBITDA. Each one answers a transaction question. None decomposes the operating gap between realised and attainable margin. Discounted Margin Flow separates current margin capture, document-supported recurring opportunities, and conditional scenarios for implemented fixes.

Principal observations

$432,000

of annual opportunity was identified in the engagement. This is the initial signal, not a recovery claim.

$185,000

passed the document tests and entered the candidate register. It remains a ceiling, not a pipeline.

$40,000

needs only the owner's signature. The remaining candidate amount requires a counterparty to agree first.

$36,000

is the defensible annual run-rate after the stated realisation haircut. No implementation outcomes exist yet.

Third edition

This edition adds an executive summary, explicit execution-route tiers, switching-cost breakevens, a buyer-style realisation scenario, and a preregistered follow-up schema. No numerical result changed.

Claim limit. DMF is an operating diagnostic and scenario framework. It is not an appraisal, quality-of-earnings review, accounting opinion, forecast, or guarantee of recovery.

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